Sitemap - 2019 - Elliott’s notebook
Joe Biden’s hopeless embrace of bipartisanship
December 29, 2019 📊 Democratic voters might be more loyal to their party than they were in 2016
Are Democratic primary polls actually rigged against non-white voters?
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Everything is broken and nothing matters anymore
December 15, 2019 📊 Why Pete Buttigieg was always doomed (probably)
Is this the end of popular presidential candidates?
December 8, 2019 📊 Britain's election isn't over til it's over
Independents are the key to Trump's impeachment fallout
December 1, 2019 📊 Buttigieg has taken supporters from Warren, not Biden
The real lesson from elections in Kentucky and Louisiana
How responsive is public opinion?
November 17, 2019 📊 Obama is probably right about Democrats’ leftward drift
Buttigieg's rise has cost Biden and Warren the most early-state support
November 10, 2019 📊 The 2020 election will be close (until it's not)
November 3, 2019 📊 Where are the swing voters?
How liberal are Democratic primary voters?
October 27, 2019 📊The puzzle of Joe Biden’s lead
A brewing 2020 Democratic revolt?
Oops! October 20, 2019 📊 Are 2020 general election polls actually good right now?
October 20, 2019 📊 Are 2020 general election polls actually good right now?
Don't pay attention to election forecasting models based only on economics
Still no evidence of a decline in Republican party identification since 2016
October 13, 2019 📊 Elizabeth Warren is a coalition-builder
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Can we trust impeachment polling?
Why parties shouldn’t use polls to vet candidates
September 29, 2019 📊 How many Americans actually support impeachment?
A better measure of 2020 electability
What polls say about impeachment
September 22, 2019 📊 Which Democrats are still actually in the running for 2020?
Voter turnout will be high in 2020. We don't really know what that means yet
September 15, 2019 📊 Could Donald Trump's presidency be creating a generation of Democrats?
CHAT: What we learned from the special election in North Carolina's 9th congressional district
What we learned from the special election in North Carolina's 9th congressional district
September 8, 2019 📊 Do Republican retirements predict a "blue wave" for 2020?
Why Howard Schultz's presidential bid was doomed from the start
September 1, 2019 📊 Are pollsters herding their polls of the 2020 Democratic primary?
Bad economic news could doom Trump
Good news and also yeah some bad news
"Electability" is a function of your opponent, too. That's bad news for Trump.
August 18, 2019 📊 Will third party voters spoil the 2020 presidential election?
The state of the states in the 2020 Democratic nominating contest
Can early economic conditions predict elections?
August 11, 2019 📊 The end for Joe Biden
What's dividing voters in the 2020 Democratic primary?
August 4, 2019 📊 What’s the chance of a blue Texas?
Gun violence, white nationalism, and Donald Trump
The political science on impeaching Trump
The electoral link in support for impeaching Trump
July 28, 2019 📊 What would a Biden or Warren victory actually mean?
Can we talk about UK polling for a second?
Impeachment looks less likely than ever
July 21, 2019 📊 How Democrats' electoral college disadvantage could grow... or crumble
How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries
Democrats need at least some swing voters in 2020
June 30, 2019 📊What does the first 2020 primary debate mean for the Democrats?
Don't hire writers that don't have political numeracy
Subscribers-only chat: Democratic debate round 2: FIGHT
The not-so-backlash "backlash" to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
June 23, 2019 📊How much do presidential primary debates matter?
How to think about all these 2020 polls
June 16, 2019 📊What a liberal Democratic president could accomplish
Chat: Warren in second place in yet another 2020 poll
Elizabeth Warren is gaining steam
June 9, 2019 📊 Can a "religious left" match the Christian Right?
Some early 2020 warning signs for Trump
June 2, 2019 📊 The political mood still favors Democrats, but noisy signals abound
Understanding Trump's base when it comes to tariffs (and everything else)
The issue with polling on impeachment
May 26, 2019 📊 Nationalism and nativism are no longer fringe movements
53% of Democrats think impeachment should be a top priority for Congress
May 19, 2019 📊 Should Democrats go after Trump voters or non-voters?
May 12, 2019 📊 What makes 2020 different than 2016?
May 5, 2019 📊 Democrats: "What we want, baby who's got it?"
April 28, 2019 📊 Biden is out front, but for how long?
April 21, 2019 📊 What comes after the Mueller report?
April 7, 2019 📊 The Buttigieg Email: What Is with the "Mayor Pete" Hype?
March 31, 2019 📊 Why Trump's New Health Care Crusade Will Probably Backfire
March 24, 2019 📊 Reactions to the End of Mueller's Investigation
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 March 17, 2019
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 March 10, 2019
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 March 3, 2019
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 February 24, 2019
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 February 17, 2019
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 February 3, 2019
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 January 20, 2019