I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s in second place in the averages by this time next month (or, hey, even next week).
One poll is just one poll, but YouGov’s new national 2020 Dem numbers are the first to have Warren in second place over Bernie Sanders, if I remember correctly. But early this week we got numbers from Iowa and Massachusetts that showed her in or tied for second, so this really isn’t much of a surprise is it?
A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday had Warren within the margin of error versus Bernie Sanders, her best-yet performance for that pollster, too.
One thing that I noticed in the Quinnipiac poll from yesterday is that Bernie does really well among people who are not engaged with the race yet and his voters sharply drop with voters who are already engaged, but Warren is absolutely killing it with voters who are engaged with the race. My strong suspicion is that people who would be inclined to vote for Sanders are tuning in and realizing that they like her more.
Warren is going to keep eating more of Bernie’s pie. She’s a less harsh, more creative voice for a lot of similar progressive ideas. I think Bernie will start to fall behind when the debates begin.
I do think there are serious questions in the DEM camp about Warren’s ability to win the presidency, and that will drive a lot of people to begrudgingly support Biden.
One thing that I noticed in the Quinnipiac poll from yesterday is that Bernie does really well among people who are not engaged with the race yet and his voters sharply drop with voters who are already engaged, but Warren is absolutely killing it with voters who are engaged with the race. My strong suspicion is that people who would be inclined to vote for Sanders are tuning in and realizing that they like her more.
Warren is going to keep eating more of Bernie’s pie. She’s a less harsh, more creative voice for a lot of similar progressive ideas. I think Bernie will start to fall behind when the debates begin.
I do think there are serious questions in the DEM camp about Warren’s ability to win the presidency, and that will drive a lot of people to begrudgingly support Biden.
YouGov doesn't get included here for some reason? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/