Stuck at home like I am? Let’s chat about polls! Ask anything you want or just share something you read recently. Visit our most recent thread on polls for ideas or to remind me about unanswered questions. I’ll respond to everyone who comments before I go offline.
Ok, discuss!
EDIT 10:34 PM EDT: I’m going offline now—thanks all for the engagement! I think it might be a good idea to increase the frequency of these chats because I really enjoy them, and apparently some of y’all do too!
A couple of different questions. Respond to whatever interests you the most!
1. What are some weighting variables that polls do not currently use that you think could make a big difference. We can ignore feasibility for now. Would weighting towards religion increase accuracy? What about income or even something like social media usage?
2. What are your thoughts on moving away from traditional weighting schemes and using models directly. Using a model would allow us to share information both temporally and spatially. Rather than just using one poll we aggregate multiple polls. Do you think this is feasible and would it increase accuracy from current methods. What do you see as some of the dangers of this?
3. Do you have any ideas about how we could re-think traditional margin of error. Traditionally margin of error only considers sampling error. It does not consider inaccuracy in weighting variables, people's opinions changing or unseen confounding variables. Do you have any thoughts about a better way to convey potential error in a poll?
How much of Trump’s approval/disapproval has to do with the state of the economy? Like if the economy goes into recession for a few months how much would that affect his numbers based on the data that’s out there?
Historically, have there been polls on P/VP posssible combos & how they might affect GE victory (eg Electoral College) chances? Have they been at all accurate, if so? And what was their margin of error? Or is this not a thing?
First, I saw you (or maybe another days journalist) tweet a while back that head-to-head presidential polls last cycle were very close to the ultimate outcome. But you recently tweeted that Obama’s and Hillary’s polls at this point in their cycles had them winning by much greater margins than they did. How do you fit those together?
Second, how seriously should we take recent polls measuring approval of Trump’s coronavirus response? They align very closely with his approval ratings, but the worst of the outbreak is obviously yet to come.
How seriously should we take national / state level general election polls at this point? It seemed like they were quite often a function of name recognition in terms of which Dem candidates did better than others in 2019. How much should those polls influence our priors at this stage in the race?
History of polling: Polling has changed since 1935 (Gallup origins) in questions asked and in populations asked. For example, black voters weren't polled prior to 1980. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/journey-power-history-black-voters-1976-2020-n1029581. Thinking about polling this way, who gets asked what questions when, I am struck by the disconnect between polls and people's concerns, and between the mainstream media narrative derived from polls and the public's actual concerns.
For example, we have plenty of polls on race relations, but I am not finding polls on disparate access to resources. We have polls on racial resentment, but I don't find polls on public resentment of capitalists moving jobs offshore, getting tax breaks, getting Congress to provide beneficial legislation at the expense of the general public. Instead, we see polls and resulting narratives that distort the facts and result in electing republican tools of capital. Since 1968, we have elected 5 of the nation's worst presidents. I haven't done a review of the polling questions asked from 1968 on but I believe I will.
Let's chat about polls! Quarantine style.
A couple of different questions. Respond to whatever interests you the most!
1. What are some weighting variables that polls do not currently use that you think could make a big difference. We can ignore feasibility for now. Would weighting towards religion increase accuracy? What about income or even something like social media usage?
2. What are your thoughts on moving away from traditional weighting schemes and using models directly. Using a model would allow us to share information both temporally and spatially. Rather than just using one poll we aggregate multiple polls. Do you think this is feasible and would it increase accuracy from current methods. What do you see as some of the dangers of this?
3. Do you have any ideas about how we could re-think traditional margin of error. Traditionally margin of error only considers sampling error. It does not consider inaccuracy in weighting variables, people's opinions changing or unseen confounding variables. Do you have any thoughts about a better way to convey potential error in a poll?
This is more voting than polling, but how much lower Do you think turnout will be tomorrow compared to 2016! Who do you think it benefits more?
How much of Trump’s approval/disapproval has to do with the state of the economy? Like if the economy goes into recession for a few months how much would that affect his numbers based on the data that’s out there?
Is there a list of polls that weigh by education and out if those which are online vs live caller?
I want to know which polls are doing the right things
Historically, have there been polls on P/VP posssible combos & how they might affect GE victory (eg Electoral College) chances? Have they been at all accurate, if so? And what was their margin of error? Or is this not a thing?
General Election Polls are accurate this year, right? I'm talking about the Arizona one today.
Two questions (sorry to be that guy).
First, I saw you (or maybe another days journalist) tweet a while back that head-to-head presidential polls last cycle were very close to the ultimate outcome. But you recently tweeted that Obama’s and Hillary’s polls at this point in their cycles had them winning by much greater margins than they did. How do you fit those together?
Second, how seriously should we take recent polls measuring approval of Trump’s coronavirus response? They align very closely with his approval ratings, but the worst of the outbreak is obviously yet to come.
Thank you!
How seriously should we take national / state level general election polls at this point? It seemed like they were quite often a function of name recognition in terms of which Dem candidates did better than others in 2019. How much should those polls influence our priors at this stage in the race?
History of polling: Polling has changed since 1935 (Gallup origins) in questions asked and in populations asked. For example, black voters weren't polled prior to 1980. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/journey-power-history-black-voters-1976-2020-n1029581. Thinking about polling this way, who gets asked what questions when, I am struck by the disconnect between polls and people's concerns, and between the mainstream media narrative derived from polls and the public's actual concerns.
For example, we have plenty of polls on race relations, but I am not finding polls on disparate access to resources. We have polls on racial resentment, but I don't find polls on public resentment of capitalists moving jobs offshore, getting tax breaks, getting Congress to provide beneficial legislation at the expense of the general public. Instead, we see polls and resulting narratives that distort the facts and result in electing republican tools of capital. Since 1968, we have elected 5 of the nation's worst presidents. I haven't done a review of the polling questions asked from 1968 on but I believe I will.
last month you dropped some early results of polling reliability and concluded "newer methods of polling the public are proving rather successful" ... https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1232123018002010113
Do you plan to write more as to how/why text (SMS) methods are faring the best? or any articles you can point to? Thnx!
Interested in your thoughts on why the data for progress primary polls have been so accurate so far? What’s the method they’re using there?
You should do this on discord or WhatsAp. I think that would be fun.