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Whatever the polls show, the missing variable here involves political administration. Ted Lowi used to argue that political scientists, like Macy's, discounted the 3 to 4% that slipped through due to corruption was reasonable given the costs of controlling for it. But what if the 70,000 "monitors" dispatched by the RNC. and other state acts actually do severely and disproportionately depress turnout? Not your are area of expertise, but are there any of us looking at this?

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