I wonder if this isn't based in some part on mobilization efforts. A good GOTV effort can increase turnout quite substantially, and I think that Dems are far more likely to run campaigns of this kind (proposition one is sustained by many studies, I'm not sure about 2)
As presented in the graph, the major turnout difference among congressional elections is between off-year and presidential years. They don't belong on the same graph, because the higher turnout of presidential years goes with massive short-term forces and partisan swings. Analyzed separately, especially in the 21st century, both midterm and quadrennial elections show a moderate relationship between turnout and Democratic share of the vote.
I wonder if this isn't based in some part on mobilization efforts. A good GOTV effort can increase turnout quite substantially, and I think that Dems are far more likely to run campaigns of this kind (proposition one is sustained by many studies, I'm not sure about 2)
Thanks for this article. This has been a question of mine.
Aslo are you familar with a poll aggregator for live caller, education weighted polls?
If not is there a list of polls that are live caller and weighted by education?
As presented in the graph, the major turnout difference among congressional elections is between off-year and presidential years. They don't belong on the same graph, because the higher turnout of presidential years goes with massive short-term forces and partisan swings. Analyzed separately, especially in the 21st century, both midterm and quadrennial elections show a moderate relationship between turnout and Democratic share of the vote.