7 Comments
Sep 10, 2020Liked by G. Elliott Morris

Your snake model is wonderfully vivid. Nice work.

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Sep 10, 2020Liked by G. Elliott Morris

I want to see what the race looks like in a week. If Biden regains some of his pre-convention support because Trump's convention bounce is fading, Trump has major problems. Trump's convention bounce didn't have Trump take the lead in keys states like PA and FL. If this is supposed to be one of Trump's best polling week or best two weeks, he isn't in good shape.

There could be an September/October surprise which could change of course of the election. The Woodward Book? Ron Johnson's committee investigation? The Durham Report? Or maybe the debates change the election? Due to polarization, maybe these potential events won't change the election.

My guess is the election won't really move that much for the rest of the race and Biden is headed for a 7 to 8 percent popular vote victory and will flip MI, WI, PA, and FL, and likely AZ and perhaps NC. We'll see.

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Is it me, or does it look like polls are getting a little tighter in Florida eroding Biden's advantage there? Probably need another week worth's of data. If FL is in danger other tight states could follow....

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I think we are shortly entering a timespan when all of this becomes increasingly just an intellectual exercise as early voting begins. The early vote is supposed to be record-breaking this year, with Democrats expressing more enthusiasm than Republicans per the WA Post.

Will there be data available on early voting? And if so, how would that affect election outcome models?

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